Bitcoin clears $106K – Will the Fed or Iran-Israel tensions spark the next move?

• Bitcoin reclaimed $106k, setting up a potential squeeze as shorts dominate Binance perp positioning.
• Will bulls finally break the cycle, or is another macro-driven rejection looming?

Bitcoin [BTC] kicked off the week by reclaiming $106k, squeezing late shorts after last week’s 7% flush cleared out excess leverage. 

But this isn’t a new pattern. Since mid-May, BTC’s 1D chart has shown a recurring structure where sharp liquidity sweeps trigger solid dips, draw in value hunters, and then face macro-driven FUD that erases weekly gains and resets the trend.

Will this time be different? Can Bitcoin finally break out of this volatility trap and establish a clear directional bias, or is it setting up for another rinse and repeat? How Bitcoin resolves this setup could dictate its next leg.

Bitcoin’s fourth attempt at directional clarity

At press time, Bitcoin posted a 1.31% intraday jump, not just reclaiming $106k but extending its wick to $107,263.

More critically, Binance’s order book is showing nearly 60% of BTC/USDT perp traders skewed short, building a clear liquidity pocket above.

Bulls have the setup laid out, but until they punch it through, BTC’s stuck in this high-leverage chop zone. If a squeeze kicks off, $110k is the level to watch, marking the fourth attempt to break into price discovery.

So far, though, each breakout has been short-lived, with macro jitters dragging things back just before the structure can confirm.

Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

That said, the odds of another volatility grab are even higher. 

With two days left until the FOMC, markets are leaning toward a rate pause, backed by May’s softer data prints. But fresh geopolitical risk now complicates that setup.

Conflict between two major oil-producing nations has reignited inflation concerns, adding pressure to risk assets. Bitcoin wasn’t spared. It took a 7% hit last week, retracing back to $102k.

Technically speaking, BTC’s current push back to $106k is unfolding within the same structural pattern that preceded the last three failed breakout attempts.

Consequently, weakening the odds for bulls to break the cycle and push Bitcoin into price discovery toward a new all-time high.